CLINICAL AND SEROLOGICAL PREDICTORS OF POST COVID-19 CONDITION: FINDINGS FROM A CANADIAN PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY (preprint)

Introduction: More than three years into the pandemic, there is persisting uncertainty as to the etiology, biomarkers, and risk factors of Post COVID-19 Condition (PCC). Serological research data remain a largely untapped resource. Few studies have investigated the potential relationships between post-acute serology and PCC, while accounting for clinical covariates. Methods: We compared clinical and serological predictors among COVID-19 survivors with (n=102 cases) and without (n=122 controls) persistent symptoms [≥] 12 weeks post-infection. We selected four primary serological predictors (anti-nucleocapsid (N), anti-Spike, and anti-receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG titres, and neutralization efficiency), and specified clinical covariates a priori. Results: Similar proportions of PCC-cases (66.7%, n=68) and infected-controls (71.3%, n=87) tested positive for anti-N IgG. More cases tested positive for anti-Spike (94.1%, n=96) and anti-RBD (95.1%, n=97) IgG, as compared with controls (anti-Spike: 89.3%, n=109; anti-RBD: 84.4%, n=103). Similar trends were observed among unvaccinated participants. Effects of IgG titres on PCC status were non-significant in univariate and multivariate analyses. Adjusting for age and sex, PCC-cases were more likely to be efficient neutralizers (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.11 - 4.49), and odds was further increased among cases to report deterioration in quality of life (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.64 - 7.31). Clinical covariates found to be significantly related to PCC included obesity (OR 2.3, p=0.02), number of months post COVID-19 (OR 1.1, p<0.01), allergies (OR 1.8, p=0.04), and need for medical support (OR 4.1, p<0.01). Conclusion: Despite past COVID-19 infection, approximately one third of PCC-cases and infected-controls were seronegative for anti-N IgG. Findings suggest higher neutralization efficiency among cases as compared with controls, and that this relationship is stronger among cases with more severe PCC. Cases also required more medical support for COVID-19 symptoms, and described complex, ongoing health sequelae. More data from larger cohorts are needed to substantiate results, permit subgroup analyses of IgG titres, and explore for differences between clusters of PCC symptoms. Future assessment of IgG subtypes may also elucidate new findings.

Antibody response durability following three-dose COVID-19 vaccination in people with HIV receiving suppressive ART (preprint)

Background: Limited data exist regarding longer-term antibody responses following three-dose COVID-19 vaccination, and the impact of a first SARS-CoV-2 infection during this time, in people living with HIV (PLWH) receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART). We quantified wild-type-(WT), Omicron BA.1- and Omicron BA.5-specific responses up to six months post-third dose in 64 PLWH and 117 controls who remained COVID-19-naive or experienced their first SARS-CoV-2 infection during this time. Design: Longitudinal observational cohort. Methods: We quantified WT- and Omicron-specific Anti-Spike receptor-binding domain IgG concentrations, ACE2 displacement activities and live virus neutralization at one, three and six months post-third vaccine dose. Results: Third doses boosted all antibody measures above two-dose levels, but BA.1-specific responses remained significantly lower than WT-specific ones, with BA.5-specific responses lower still. Serum IgG concentrations declined at similar rates in COVID-19-naive PLWH and controls post-third dose (median WT- and BA.1-specific half-lives were between 66-74 days for both groups). Antibody function also declined significantly yet comparably between groups: six months post-third dose, BA.1-specific neutralization was undetectable in >80% of COVID-19 naive PLWH and >90% of controls. Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection boosted antibody concentrations and function significantly above vaccine-induced levels in both PLWH and controls, though BA.5-specific neutralization remained significantly poorer than BA.1 even post-breakthrough. Conclusions: Following three-dose COVID-19 vaccination, antibody response durability in PLWH receiving ART is comparable to controls. PLWH also mounted strong responses to breakthrough infection. Due to temporal response declines however, COVID-19-naive individuals, regardless of HIV status, would benefit from a fourth dose within 6 months of their third.

Seasonal Respiratory Virus Circulation was Diminished during the COVID-19 Pandemic (preprint)

Background: Measures introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic intended to address the spread of SARS-CoV-2 may also influence the incidence of other common seasonal respiratory viruses (SRV). This evaluation reports laboratory confirmed cases of common SRV in a well-defined region of central Canada to address this issue. Methods: Surveillance data for common non-SARS-CoV-2 SRV in the Ottawa, Canada region was provided by the Eastern Ontario Regional Laboratory Association (EORLA) reference virology lab. Weekly reports of the number of positive tests and proportion that yielded positive results was analyzed from August 26, 2018 to January 2, 2022. Results: A drastic reduction in influenza and other common SRV was observed during the 2020-2021 influenza season in the Ottawa region. Influenza was virtually undetected post SARS-CoV-2 emergence. Rhinoviruses and enteroviruses were the only viruses that remained relatively unaffected during this period. Conclusions: We speculated that the introduction of non-pharmaceutical measures including masking to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission contributed to the near absence of SRV in the Ottawa region. These measures should remain a key component in addressing spikes in SRV activity and future pandemics.

Longitudinal profiles of plasma gelsolin, cytokines and antibody expression predict COVID-19 severity and hospitalization outcomes (preprint)

Background Prognostic markers for COVID-19 disease outcome are currently lacking. Plasma gelsolin (pGSN) is an actin-binding protein and an innate immune marker involved in disease pathogenesis and viral infections. Here, we demonstrate the utility of pGSN as a prognostic marker for COVID-19 disease outcome; a test performance that is significantly improved when combined with cytokines and antibodies compared to other conventional markers such as CRP and ferritin. Methods Blood samples were longitudinally collected from hospitalized COVID-19 patients as well as COVID-19 negative controls and the levels of pGSN in μg/mL, cytokines and anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies assayed. Mean±SEM values were correlated with clinical parameters to develop a prognostic platform. Results pGSN levels were significantly reduced in COVID-19 patients compared to healthy individuals. Additionally, pGSN levels combined with plasma IL-6, IP-10 and M-CSF significantly distinguished COVID-19 patients from healthy individuals. While pGSN and anti-spike IgG titers together strongly predict COVID-19 severity and death, the combination of pGSN and IL-6 was a significant predictor of milder disease and favorable outcomes. Conclusion Taken together, these findings suggest that multi-parameter analysis of pGSN, cytokines and antibodies could predict COVID-19 hospitalization outcomes with greater certainty compared with conventional clinical laboratory markers such as CRP and ferritin. This research will inform and improve clinical management and health system interventions in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Trial Registration N/A Funding The Ottawa Hospital Department of Medicine - Special Pandemic Agile Research Competition

People with HIV receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy show typical antibody durability after dual COVID-19 vaccination, and strong third dose responses (preprint)

Background: Longer-term humoral responses to two-dose COVID-19 vaccines remain incompletely characterized in people living with HIV (PLWH), as do initial responses to a third dose. Methods: We measured antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein receptor-binding domain, ACE2 displacement and viral neutralization against wild-type and Omicron strains up to six months following two-dose vaccination, and one month following the third dose, in 99 PLWH receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy, and 152 controls. Results: Though humoral responses naturally decline following two-dose vaccination, we found no evidence of lower antibody concentrations nor faster rates of antibody decline in PLWH compared to controls after accounting for sociodemographic, health and vaccine-related factors. We also found no evidence of poorer viral neutralization in PLWH after two doses, nor evidence that a low nadir CD4+ T-cell count compromised responses. Post-third-dose humoral responses substantially exceeded post-second-dose levels, though anti-Omicron responses were consistently weaker than against wild-type. Nevertheless, post-third-dose responses in PLWH were comparable to or higher than controls. An mRNA-1273 third dose was the strongest consistent correlate of higher post-third-dose responses. Conclusion: PLWH receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy mount strong antibody responses after two- and three-dose COVID-19 vaccination. Results underscore the immune benefits of third doses in light of Omicron.

Humoral immune responses to COVID-19 vaccination in people living with HIV on suppressive antiretroviral therapy (preprint)

Background. Our understanding of COVID-19 vaccine immune responses in people living with HIV (PLWH) remains incomplete. Methods. We measured circulating antibodies against the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and ACE2 displacement activities after one and two COVID-19 vaccine doses in 100 adult PLWH and 152 controls. Results. All PLWH were receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy, with median CD4+ T-cell counts of 710 (IQR 525-935) cells/mm3. Median nadir CD4+ T-cell counts were 280 (IQR 120-490) cells/mm3, and ranged as low as 9 cells/mm3. After adjustment for sociodemographic, health and vaccine-related variables, HIV infection was associated with 0.2 log10 lower anti-RBD antibody concentrations (p=0.03) and ~7% lower ACE2 displacement activity (p=0.037) after one vaccine dose. Following two vaccine doses however, the association between HIV and weaker responses no longer remained. Rather, older age, a higher burden of chronic health conditions, and having received two ChAdOx1 doses (as opposed to a heterologous or dual mRNA vaccine regimen) were the most significant correlates of weaker humoral responses. No significant association was observed between the most recent or nadir CD4+ T-cell counts and responses to COVID-19 vaccination in PLWH following two vaccine doses. Conclusions. These results suggest that PLWH whose viral loads are well-controlled on antiretroviral therapy and whose CD4+ T-cell counts are in a healthy range will generally not require a third COVID-19 vaccine dose as part of their initial immunization series, though other factors such as older age, co-morbidities, type of initial vaccine regimen and durability of vaccine responses will influence when this group may benefit from additional doses. Further studies of PLWH who are not receiving antiretroviral treatment and/or who have low CD4+ T-cell counts are needed.

Relative Ratios of Human Seasonal Coronavirus Antibodies Predict the Efficiency of Cross-Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Binding to ACE2 (preprint)

Antibodies raised against highly prevalent human seasonal coronaviruses (sCoVs), which are responsible for the common cold, are known to cross-react with SARS-CoV-2 antigens. This cross-reactivity prompts questions about their protective role against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 disease severity. However, the relationship between sCoV exposure and SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protection have not been clearly identified. Here we performed a cross-sectional analysis of cross-reactivity and cross-neutralization to three SARS-CoV-2 antigens using pre-pandemic serum from four different groups: pediatrics and adolescents (<21 yrs of age), persons 21 to 70 yrs of age, persons older than 70 yrs of age, and persons living with HCV or HIV. We find that antibody cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 antigens varied between 1.6% and 15.3% depending on the cohort and the isotype-antigen pair analyzed. We also demonstrate a broad range of neutralizing activity (0-45%) in pre-pandemic serum that interferes with SARS-CoV-2 spike attachment to ACE2. While the abundance of sCoV antibodies did not directly correlate with neutralization efficiency, by using machine learning methodologies, we show that neutralizing activity is rather dependent on the latent variables related to the pattern ratios of sCoVs antibodies presented by each person. These were independent of age or sex, and could be accurately predicted by comparing the relative ratios of IgGs in sera directed to NL63, 229E, HKU-1, and OC43 spike proteins. More specifically, we identified antibodies to NL63 and OC43 as being the two most important predictors of latent variables responsible for protection, and 229E as being the least weighted. Our data support that exposure to sCoVs triggers various cellular and immune responses that influence the efficiency of SARS-CoV-2 spike binding to ACE2, and may impact COVID-19 disease severity through various other latent variables.

Post-exposure Prophylaxis Against SARS-CoV-2 in Close Contacts of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (CORIPREV): Study Protocol for a Cluster-randomised Trial (preprint)

Background: Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is a well-established strategy for the prevention of infectious diseases, in which recently exposed people take a short course of medication to prevent infection. The primary objective of the COVID-19 Ring-based Prevention Trial with lopinavir/ritonavir (CORIPREV-LR) is to evaluate the efficacy of a 14-day course of oral lopinavir/ritonavir as PEP against COVID-19 among individuals with a high-risk exposure to a confirmed case. Methods: : This is an open-label, multicenter, 1:1 cluster-randomized trial of LPV/r versus no intervention, using an adaptive approach to sample size calculation. Participants will be individuals aged >6 months with a high-risk exposure to a confirmed COVID-19 case within the past 7 days. A combination of remote and in-person study visits at days 1, 7, 14, 35 and 90 include comprehensive epidemiological, clinical, microbiologic and serologic sampling. The primary outcome is microbiologically confirmed COVID-19 infection within 14 days after exposure, defined as a positive respiratory tract specimen for SARS-CoV-2 by polymerase chain reaction. Secondary outcomes include safety, symptomatic COVID-19, seropositivity, hospitalization, respiratory failure requiring ventilator support, mortality, psychological impact, and health-related quality of life. Additional analyses will examine the impact of LPV/r on these outcomes in the subset of participants who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 at baseline. To detect a relative risk reduction of 40% with 80% power at α=0.05, assuming p 0 =15%, 5 contacts per case and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC)=0.05, we require 110 clusters per arm, or 220 clusters overall and approximately 1220 enrollees after accounting for 10% loss-to-follow-up. We will modify the sample size target after 60 clusters, based on preliminary estimates of p0, ICC and cluster size and consider switching to an alternative drug after interim analyses and as new data emerges. The primary analysis will be a generalized linear mixed model with logit link to estimate the effect of LPV/r on the probability of infection. Discussion: Harnessing safe, existing drugs such as LPV/r as PEP could provide an important tool for control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Novel aspects of our design include the ring-based prevention approach, and the incorporation of remote strategies for conducting study visits and biospecimen collection. Trial registration: This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04321174) on March 25, 2020. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04321174